By Nick Shereiks
It’s becoming markedly evident from both broader political discourse and polling efforts that, though there are still technically 12 Democratic presidential candidates vying for their party’s nomination — among the largest fields in our national history — only a few still truly matter. Former Vice President Joe Biden retains a commanding lead, polling at roughly 28 percent on average nationally. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren trail, polling at 20 and 15 percent respectively.
Of course, it’s impossible to ever truly count out the rest of the field. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind. and billionaire Michael Bloomberg doggedly remain in the race, each polling at roughly seven percent, while entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Senator Amy Klobuchar slowly lose ground.
Still, for the sake of this article, I’ll only consider the leading three: Biden, Sanders and Warren. In the following piece, I’ll briefly analyze each candidate and evaluate their current chances at winning the Democratic nomination.
Joe Biden
Though Biden’s original bid for the 1988 presidential election ended abruptly following national indictment of a schoolboy plagiarism scandal, the figurehead politician has since made a pronounced comeback. Biden’s clear advantage is his celebrity; his tenure as President Barack Obama’s right-hand man affords the politician distinct name recognition. He also consistently polls well among minority communities, lending invaluable credibility to his campaign.
Still, Biden continues to face harsh bipartisan vetting. Biden’s legislative and broader political career remain under intense scrutiny, and the politician is routinely critiqued for both voting record missteps and his 1991 decision as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman to allow the aggressive questioning of Anita Hill pending her allegations of sexual harassment against then-nominee for the Supreme Court, Clarence Thomas. Recent indictment of Biden’s inappropriate sexually charged behavior also plagues his campaign, asking difficult questions in the name of #MeToo.
Biden’s bulletproof campaign inexplicably continues to charge forward despite intense surveillance and condemnation. It is increasingly likely that he will beat out his rivals in the upcoming Iowa caucus and eventually claim the Democratic presidential nomination.
Bernie Sanders
Sanders’ reputation as a transcendentally clean and radically liberal figurehead affords him unparalleled benefit of the doubt. Sanders also benefits from the same name recognition perks as Biden, as decades of political experience and a recent presidential bid buttress his 2020 campaign, and has created a powerful network of smalldollar donors.
Sanders is unarguably the most radically progressive candidate left in the race — campaign proposals include free tuition at public colleges, universal healthcare and a $15 minimum hourly wage — yet he continues to perform exceptionally well, even in the face of recent allegations of mild sexism and dishonesty (concerning a prior conversation held with Warren).
Sanders is currently gaining ground nationally, making up for earlier backsliding. He has qualified and performed well at every debate, sticking to passionate delivery of certain key talking points. He sometimes struggles Democratic Primary Race As the Democratic field narrows, students give their input on the progress of the race. to positively differentiate himself from Warren, in both ideology and political behavior, but is a strong contender vying for the nomination.
Elizabeth Warren
Warren is a unique candidate. Despite her Republican roots, Warren’s commitment to progressivism is unquestionable. She is often referred to as a more moderate Sanders, and many of her policies reflect that slight ideological difference.
Warren is a party leader and fierce Wall Street critic. Instrumental in establishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Warren is a politician unafraid of often-tediously detailed policy creation and furiously critical of what she calls our “rigged economic system.” Warren also recently unveiled a student loan forgiveness proposal intended to cancel roughly $50,000 of debt for millions of American citizens and supports free college tuition for students at most institutions.
Warren is slipping. She now trails Sanders by five points nationally and must take immediate control of her campaign narrative to regain crucial ground in the upcoming weeks. But Warren is a fighter, and I have no doubt she will continue fighting until the nomination itself.
Biden, Sanders and Warren are evidently different candidates. They boast diverse legislative records, personal backgrounds and policy proposals. But they’re still polling within 10 points of each other. Less than a year from the 2020 election, the Democratic primary race is still wide open — who knows what will happen next?