Kim Schmitz
Features Editor
Even residents of battleground states such as Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado are sick of the publicity they’re getting by now. The presidential candidates have been circling these key states and others, campaigning, fast and furious, for every single vote they can swing. But sometimes, the vital votes are even more localized than just anywhere in these battleground states.
Certain counties seem to be more crucial than others due to population imbalance. On certain poll maps, almost the entire country may appear to be red, though in reality this could mean a tie or even a Democratic lead. This is because medium- and large-sized cities hold so many more voters than rural areas. This may seem obvious, but it plays a huge role in the intricate science of where, when and how to campaign.
In 2008, Obama won significantly fewer counties than McCain did. But because they were populated counties, he was still handed all of the state’s electoral votes. Indeed, the list of blue counties that sealed the win in 2008 is extremely reminiscent of the list of victorious red counties in the 2004 election. This is a common trend.
Ottawa County in Ohio, which comprises approximately 41,000 voters, has succeeded in predicting the correct candidate to win for more than 60 years, which is a record for the state. According to marionstar.com, Melissa Miller, an associate political science professor from Bowling Green State University, says that “it’s not actually magic. It’s really demographics.” Some counties happen to reflect a similar ratio of young and old, white and black, and liberal and conservative voters to that of the United States as a whole, making them often reliable indicators of the way the entire country will lean.
On the contrary, certain vital counties contain a significantly skewed population of voters, which actually ma kes them extremely appealing to certain candidates. For example, Hillsborough County, Florida is an unusual mix of Hispanic people and retired Midwesterners. Obama, who seeks the minority vote, hopes to rouse the Hispanic population in order to win the county, while Romney attempts to entreat the older folks.
Hamilton County in Ohio and Loudon County in Virginia are also very strongly contested for these reasons.
In the final few days of the election, a look to these swing counties may provide as accurate a prediction of the potential election results as any poll.